When Shishkin romped to a 16-length victory in the Betfair Ascot Chase on February 18, the commentator shouted that the former Supreme Hurdle and Arkle winner was back to his best, and he might possibly be right.

His jumping was exceptional for most of the race, and he had plenty in reserve as he gradually drew clear of the runner up from the second last fence.
The second and third to finish both tired in equal measure and maintained the distance between each other from two out to the winning post, and there can be little doubt that this was a superb performance from a very classy chaser.

Any differences in opinion may come when assessing the fallout from this race. Shishkin is now an even-money shot for the Ryanair Chase, which brings to mind the effect of availability bias alongside my 'Voy Por Ustedes Strategy'.

Availability bias

Availability bias is a term often used by psychologists to define how recent evidence is often at the front of our minds and therefore more easily retrievable.

This can occasionally lead to this information being given more importance than it deserves in relation to older information.
An example of this might be when a hot favourite for a race at the Cheltenham Festival is so strong in the market, mainly due to a particularly positive performance at the Ascot meeting in the third week of February.
We might know that the horse in question is clearly better when racing as a fresh horse and yet if that February performance was out of the ordinary this other information is often, at least initially, overlooked in how the market is first presented.

The interesting paradox at work here is that the more extreme the positive performance in February, the shorter the runner will be in the market for March, and yet the more likely that effort will have a detrimental effect on a horse that is usually best when fresh.

Voy Por Ustedes Strategy

In the 2009 Betfair Ascot Chase, Voy Por Ustedes ploughed through the heavy ground to beat inferior rivals by 14 lengths and more.
This was far from the strongest renewal of this Grade One chase, but at the same time, the Alan King-trained eight-year-old did appear to be particularly impressive as he cruised clear from the turn for home.
As a consequence of this exciting performance, Voy Por Ustedes started as the 4/5 favourite for the Ryanair Chase one month later, with the fact that the Cheltenham ground was more like good to soft on that day and therefore very different to Ascot was rather overlooked.
In my experience a super impressive-looking effort on very deep ground is rarely a platform for a similarly impressive-looking performance a few weeks later; even more so when the conditions on the second day have little to do with what was required to look so scintillating in the earlier race.
The following year Master Minded won the Grade Two Game Spirit Chase by 13 lengths in the middle of February. Indeed, he would have won by even further but for blundering badly at the final fence, and consequently he started as the 4/5 favourite for the Champion Chase four weeks later.

Market moving in the wrong direction

The point in both examples is not that the two horses mentioned could not have won at the Festival. 

It is simply that they were trading at a much shorter price than their profiles merited due to a spectacular recent run that more likely detracted from their chances in the second race rather than increased their claims, as the market implied.
How many times do we hear a trainer say that, on reflection, the horse was brought back too soon, and that they could not tell that this was going to be the case based on the quality of his work at home prior to the race.
As it turned out, Voy Por Ustedes was beaten by the high-class Imperial Commander in the 2009 Ryanair Chase and he went on to win the following year's Gold Cup so it is also possible that the Alan King horse ran to his best form - though still trading shorter than his profile merited.

Back to Shishkin

In my opinion, the ante-post market for the 2023 Ryanair Chase is not considering the possibility, at least, that Shishkin may struggle to reproduce such a mammoth performance after a break of less than four weeks.

I reiterate the anomaly at work here - that is, that the more extraordinary the performance at Ascot, the shorter the winner will be for the Ryanair Chase, and yet the more chance that the first race will impact negatively on the second.

In this sense the market could be said to be moving in the wrong direction. Although many will try to suggest that Shishkin did not have a hard race on Saturday, as with Voy Por Ustedes in 2009, this could not be further from reality.
Any horse that has drawn clear of his or her rivals will know they have had to put in plenty of effort - whether it be Voy Por Ustedes winning by 15 lengths or Shishkin by 16 lengths.
We all witnessed Shishkin's battle against Energumene over two miles last January and how his connections felt that the effort he expended in the Victor Chandler may have finished him for the season, despite there being a two-month gap between Ascot and Cheltenham.
This year Shishkin has run more than half-a-mile further and the gap between the Betfair Ascot Chase and the Ryanair Chase is precisely 26 days.
Whatever Shishkin achieves in the 2023 Ryanair Chase he will almost certainly do so whilst trading shorter than he should.