Saturday 3.35 Betfair Ascot Chase 2 miles 5 furlongs

Another Saturday, another big race with a decent prize pot, but another small field (6 runners) that offers limited betting potential from my perspective.

I have used key trends to reduce the field and then form analysis to see if there is any potential value amongst the six very decent horses entered.

Ascot Chase Betting Trends

By using the trends above the following horses can be eliminated with some of the trends not met:
This leaves only two participants - Pic D'Orhy and last years' winner Fakir D'oudairies.

Pic D'Orhy

Pic D'Orhy has won most of his races in small fields, but has contested a couple of Grade 1 chases and disappointed.
I do think his last performance at Kempton was a step up and must put him on the verge of Grade 1 class.
He comes into this race on form with three back-to-back wins and Paul Nicholls, his trainer, has had three winners in this race in the last twenty years.
This race tends to be won by classy types and previous winners include: Cue Card, Silviniaco Conti, Voy Por Ustedes, Riverside Theatre and Monet's Garden. Multiple winners are commonplace, so that bolsters the chances of last years' winner Fakir D'oudairies.

Fakir D'oudairies

Fakir D'oudairies won last time when beating a decent field in the Grade 2 Horse and Jockey Stakes at Thurles, plus he has already won a few chases at Grade 1 level.
The stable is not in the greatest form and there have to be questions as to whether he will be fully wound up for this with his nemesis Allaho now being a non-runner in the Ryanair at Cheltenham.
On trends alone Fakir D'oudairies is the most likely winner.

But…

The major fly in the ointment could be the wonderfully classy, yet enigmatic Shishkin, who is the highest rated horse in the race with an official mark of 174, which is ten pounds clear of Fakir D'oudairies.
Shishkin has won seven of his nine chase starts (albeit losing his last two) and these wins include three at Grade 1; however, all of his races have been over shorter trips than this.

Two big questions:

I think he will be fit enough to do himself justice and will stay the extra distance, and if I am correct I do think he will win this race.