This handicap hurdle should be dominated by the two in-form rivals, Lone Star and Aazza, who are both making quick reappearances after decisive wins, and they are unsurprisingly heading the market.

Yes, one of them should win and the other finish second, but if low-grade handicaps always ran to last-time-out form, then we all would be millionaires!

I see a different angle to make a profit with the lightly-raced Nairobi Girl. Admittedly, she has failed to impress in her maiden hurdles, racing in the rear and postmarking a best of just 45.

On that form, she has no obvious right to get involved here off a mark of 78, but there is further evidence and logic that gives her a chance.

15:20 (Newcastle) Nairobi Girl

She won a good ground two-mile flat race at a point-to-point meeting on debut, which attracted a postmark of 60 (this can't be taken into consideration by the handicapper) and any horse is entitled to improve for racing under their ideal racing conditions.
Nairobi Girl did run again in two NH flat races and was in contention at the business end in the first before being hampered and brought down. It looked nasty which required a few months off.
Her second bumper was a seasonal pipe opener, since when she has run three times in maiden hurdles to gain her handicap mark.
Well, those three runs were all on soft/heavy going, and looking at the mare's action she needs top of the ground. This makes sense as she won her flat race on good.
Today she should be running off 53 and is technically 25 pounds out of the handicap. But that mark doesn't take into account her 60 postmark, for which the handicapper would already be giving her a mark of around 65 to 72.
Our jockey is Patrick Wadge, who has a 10% strike rate and can still claim seven pounds, so they are precious more pounds to offset the situation.
When you then factor in the biggest issue, her need for good ground, and that she is unexposed and open to any level of improvement, then her chances look much better.

And that's not to mention that she comes from the awesome jumping family of Grade 1 legends Viking Flagship and Flagship Uberalles!!

That last comment is tongue in cheek, of course, but it's nice to know, and with her sire being a St Leger winner, the extended two miles and seven furlongs might also bring improvement.

I was able to grab a tasty 100/1 price earlier, which might be subject to a Rule 4 deduction after a couple of withdrawals, but even the dropping price looks worth a point each way.

It's going to be a tough race to win, but we can get four places with some bookies, which would give us a decent profit just for running behind the two market principals, but anything can happen in a jumps race, so I'm not totally discounting the win!