The short-priced favourite is Aztec Empire, and it is easy to see why after he won a novices' event by seven lengths at Kempton last time out, but that form line might not be as strong as it appears because the runner-up was subsequently beaten even further by a runner who was also well-beaten next time after that.
Under the circumstances, he looks a bit short and the potential value created elsewhere very much brings in the other unexposed thrice-raced runner, Evania, whose form to date looks a lot stronger.
Evania is very lightly-raced for her age but that's because she was off the track for 629 days following her career debut success for previous trainer John Gosden at the end of 2020.
On that occasion, Evania easily beat her better-fancied stablemate Taslima on level terms to win a ten-furlong novices' stakes at Lingfield. Taslima was subsequently placed in Listed company and is now rated 93.
15:25 (Southwell) Evania
Following her long-lay-off, Evania switched yards to join Kevin Philippart De Foy at the end of last August and she defied expectations by making a winning return to land a 12-runner novices' stakes over a mile and a half at Kempton.
That runner-up has since run within half a length of winning a Class 3 novices' stakes at Ascot, a race in which the front pair pulled over three lengths clear of the third, who was subsequently rated 79 in handicaps.
Well behind Evania in fourth and fifth at Kempton were a pair who are both now rated 80, so on that evidence, Evania is very nicely treated for this handicap debut with an opening mark of 85, which is further reduced by Mark Winn's three-pound claim.
The mare lost her unbeaten record when highly-tried in the Churchill Stakes, a very strong Listed event over ten furlongs at Lingfield in November, but there was no disgrace in that and she did travel very well for a long way before being out-paced in the closing stages by rivals rated up to 111.
The runner who finished a place and almost three lengths behind Evania subsequently won a Listed prize at Kempton and is rated 109.
Evania would have finished closer to the leaders but for being hampered on the last bend and losing her position as the leaders quickened into the straight.
She is potentially a lot better than an 85-rated handicapper and this is a good chance for her to prove it.
This step back up to 12 furlongs is very much in her favour, stall 3 is a very handy draw, and Mark Winn rode a handicap winner here the other day (and is very good value for his claim with 4/20 on the all-weather last month).
Of the others, Capital Theory looks the best of those with handicap form, having finished runner-up in Class 3 (at Lingfield) and then Class 2 (at Kempton) handicaps over 12 and 11 furlongs respectively on his two runs so far this year.
He also ran well here on his sole visit last year, and with figures of 311122 on the all-weather, he looks sure to go well again, despite a career-high mark (which is due to go up a further two pounds) and the widest draw.
